Thursday, January 25, 2007

I Surrender

From the Sacramento Bee:

"Hundreds of Sacramento-area homeowners who missed their first mortgage payments early last year fueled the region's most dramatic rise in home foreclosures
since the 1990s during the fourth quarter of 2006, a property research firm said Wednesday.

La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems said 865 capital-area homeowners surrendered their houses to the bank in October, November and December -- nearly double the region's 450 third-quarter foreclosures."
By my count that is about 10% of all the homes currently listed on MLS for Sacramento. This is just a little troubling.

"While foreclosure activity climbed sharply, statistics also showed the rate of growth in notices of default -- the first sign that homeowners are having trouble making their mortgage payments -- has slowed.

The region's 16 percent jump in default notices in the fourth quarter compared to a 25 percent jump the previous quarter -- and a 37 percent rise statewide."
This is interesting that because the 4th quarter “jump” in default notices is only 16% versus 25% in the 3rd quarter that the rate of growth “has slowed”. I don’t believe anybody talked about a “slowing” housing market when there was a 16% to a 12% appreciation. In fact, if I remember correctly all of the RE breed were shouting that there is nothing to indicate that this will ever stop and that you better sell your soul if you want a place to call your own.

"But trouble at home is still clearly on the rise. The 865 fourth-quarter foreclosures compare to 63 the same time last year in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. Analysts said Wednesday the sharp rise reflects both last year's historic lows and the sheer number of owners who overextended themselves to buy houses during the recent housing boom."
Again, I am no Greenspan...but, that looks like...carry the 2...that is over 1200%! Uh...no reason to panic or become alarmed. Stay calm all is well. This is just a blip in the vast market that we call real estate.

We shall see. Stay tuned and we will continue to watch the carnage that is to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice site. Looking forward to further information on the area.

I wonder how it is that the "experts" express shock at the speed and depth of the market turn around when many of us who are more casual observers have been prognosticating this drop for two years.

Giving "stated income" loans to those who have the expectation (and need) of a 25% annual return after five years of such returns seems to be a bad business model.

It's like letting an ameteur drive a train downhill, knowing the brakes might be almost worn out, and then exclaiming, "I cannot believe you crashed the train!"

It cannot be that difficult to understand, even for experts.