Amador Real Estate

Surprise...it is still going...

2008-08-21T08:40:00.000-07:00

Not much needs to be said here...it is obvious.

Ione 3BD goes for $216K

Here's a place (a foreclosure) in Ione (as opposed to "I rent" - which I think that many will be doing going forward), that appears to have sold for about 31% less than it was bought for in '05. Picked up in the height of the frenzy in 2005 for $310k and recently purchased from SG Mortgage, that is quite a deal lower than when everyone was saying "you need to buy before it is too late".

It is still coming in at about $135/sqft, which seems excessive for prison town, but to each his own or "Ione" as the case may be.

Trulia's Sales History

Sales History
Historical home sale price (1):	$216,000
Prior sale date:	Jul 1, 2008
Change since this sale (1):	NA

Historical home sale price (2):	$198,750
Prior sale date:	Apr 17, 2008
Change since this sale (2):	+9%

Historical home sale price (3):	$310,000
Prior sale date:	Dec 20, 2005
Change since this sale (3):	-30%

1/3 Off the Top...

2008-03-19T14:06:00.000-07:00

Amador.WhoBoughtWhat.com is reporting on a recent sale down in the lovely little town of Ione. The home at 3530 Lakeview Dr. just sold for the whopping price of $205k.

This home is a roomy 3 bedroom, 2 bath, with 1355 square feet on a 1/4 acre no less. And take a look at the size of that driveway! You can park several buses on that slab; and believe me Ione has a couple to spare.

At that price, it works about to be $151 per square foot. Man, that is almost affordable.

Traditional calculations still put this home in the hands of a household with a gross income of about $71k, which doesn't cover too many of the jobs in this area outside of working at the prison across the street. But, we're getting ever-so slowly closer to reality.

The previous owners didn't quite make it before the government started coming up with all this bail-out legislation and other programs. Just missed! It looks like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be able to buy all of that cruddy and worthless MBS paper real soon though. Then the taxpayers will easily be able to afford picking up these losses; I say, share the wealth and spread the pain, eh? In fact, let's just add to what our grandchildren already owe on our reckless spending. No sense in someone hogging all that suffering to themselves (tongue is in cheek).

Anyway, the previous owners had picked up this gem for $309k back in April of '05 - back when gold was floating in the river apparently. I guess they hated to continue to pay for something that was getting cheaper every 24 hours, so....

1/3 off the top! Not bad. Still, I think that the new owners will discover in another year that the comps will be even less than what they paid. Maybe they can pawn it off to the OFHEO, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the like in the very near future.

Again?

2008-03-19T08:45:00.000-07:00

Shocking but true. The property at 17780 W Clinton Road in Jackson, CA is once again facing foreclosure. This place was highlighted in March of 2007 in the article "More Trustee Sales" as on the doomsday list and incredibly, here it is again.

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 06-28190
DEED OF TRUST, DATED 08/18/2005
Will sell on 04/08/2008 at 12:00PM
Notice of Sale is $452,952.05

Oddly enough, there is more owed now than back in March of '07 ($452k vs. $414k). Perhaps, this is one of those reverse mortgages. It seems a lot of people have those these days. :)>

Back in the day (Mar. of '07), it was being marketed at $619k. Today, there are 2 interesting offerings:

Barbi Boyle has it listed at $599k (it says "reduced", um...)
Village Real Estate has it at $395k - wow, that looks like $200k less than Barbi! Barbi, you need to dump Ken, sell the pink corvette, and get with the times. It does currently say "pending", but we'll see. It seems I have heard that story before. Can someone say "short sale"?

Well, good luck and stay renting.

Assessing Value...

2008-03-12T07:38:00.000-07:00

Jim Rooney, Assessor

Mission: "Our mission is to create equitable, timely and accurate property tax assessments to fund public services. We will strive to be a source of accurate and timely property information for local government and the community."

Link to the Assessor's Website

Phone: (209) 223-6351
Assessor's Email

For those that have already felt the sting of depreciation, there may be some relief on the horizon. The Amador County Assessor's office is reporting that property taxes may be lowered because of property value declines.

The Amador Ledger Dispatch reports in Reassessing your property values:

With a decrease of property values over the past year or so, the Amador County Assessor's Office is in the process of reviewing and reducing some assessments throughout the county and we are also receiving numerous inquiries about the reduction of assessments.

The key word here is "some". It is not likely in the county's best interest to have mass reductions in assessments being that they receive a large portion of yearly revenue from property taxes.

However, we are obligated to reduce assessments when the assessed value of a property is greater than fair market value.

The issue then is to provide evidence that your property has in fact lost value since your purchase. My suggestion would be to do all that you can to assist in this process. Hire your own appraiser and push the Assessor's Office to examine the results.

A family member of mine that lives down in the Stockton area has lost a bit of value in her home. She asked for the county to reduce the assessment based on the market conditions. Their response was that there were no reliable comps in the area to support her claim. She responded that there have been multiple foreclosures and that there are comps from FC purchases and bank buy-backs. Their reply was that foreclosures do not count toward comp values.

Amazing that FCs seem to affect everything else prompting so much government action to help and bail out the banks, but they don't affect your tax rate. Maybe if you worked for Citi Bank, MBIA, or AMBAC you could get a break.

Expect the Assessor's Office to drag their feet on this, but keep pushing.

Assessment review requests may be submitted to the assessor's office at any time. Requests for assessment review that are received between July 2 and Nov. 30 will be reviewed for the current tax year. Requests received between Nov. 30 and June 30 may be examined for the next tax year.

Like with most things in the government, these time frames make no common sense. Strange how there is a 5 month window in the middle of the year that is applicable to the current tax year, but there is a 7 month window (including the first 6 months) that is applicable to the next tax year. Does that make sense?

In any case, the best advice is to keep pushing and make a lot of noise. Be the squeaky wheel and demand that grease!

So, give Jim Rooney a call and let him know that you also support "equitable, timely and accurate property tax assessments".

A New Record...

2008-03-11T17:58:00.000-07:00

Wow! A new record I believe. The Amador Ledger-Dispatch currently has 16 Trustee Sale Announcements.

Here they are:
Address, Notice of Sale, Date of Sale
1. 11656 New York Ranch Road Jackson CA $747,339.77 03/18/08
2. 14661 Shenandoah Road Plymouth CA 95669 $440,155.01 03/18/08
3. 18900 Jura Lane Fiddletown CA 95629 $80,629.16 03/18/08
4. 340 South Ave., Jackson, CA $203,802.98 3/27/08
5. 18892 Ellinwood Way , Jackson, CA $369,119.89 03/25/08
6. 3570 Lakeview Drive Ione, CA 95640 $261,779.30 03/27/08
7. 4235 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, Lone, CA 95640 $278,517.32 04/02/08
8. 829 PICCARDO LN , JACKSON, CA. 95642 $245,839.40 04/01/08
9. 10336 AMADOR ST. JACKSON, CA 95642 $217,290.80 04/02/08
10. 16437 Meadow Vista Dr. Pioneer, CA 95666 $363,819.04 3/18/2008
11. 5674 Red Oak Drive, Ione, CA, 95640 $94,196.75 03/18/2008
12. 445 Preston Ave. Ione, CA 95640 $300,288.64 3/25/2008
13. 263 Columbia Way, Sutter Creek, CA 95685 $319,995.78 03/13/2008
14. 1103 OAK VIEW DR IONE, CA 95640 $515,304.24 4/1/2008
15. 14661 Shenandoah Road Plymouth CA 95669 $440,155.01 03/18/08
16. 2727 Curran Road Ione, CA 95640 $300,749.23 3/24/2008

New Taxes on Gas...

2008-03-11T13:56:00.000-07:00

One place you are not likely to hear any complaining regarding gas prices is the California legislature and the Governor's office. "Why", you may ask. Well, because with every increase of the per gallon price, there is a correlating increase in tax revenue.

In a recent conversation with the all knowing oracle of trivial information (an unnamed uncle of mine), he related how there is also a sales tax per dollar above and beyond the excise taxes which are on each gallon. This I did not know. In California, there is an 18 cent per gallon state excise tax, another 18.4 cent Federal excise tax, the sales tax, and some other 1 cent federal deal.

So, with an increase in gas prices, California actually adds to the coffers with the new jackpot of gasoline taxes with the typical 7.25% per dollar sales tax.

Now, Assembly Democrats are rushing to fill the endless abyss in its appetite for spending by creating a bill to increase taxes on the one thing that is a necessity for most - oil and gas. Yes, we are in a huge budget crisis in California, thousands losing their homes, prices for everything are going up, teachers are getting laid off...I know, we can solve the whole thing with...(triumphant horns blaring)...NEW OIL TAXES.

Yes, that is right boys and girls. You have not felt enough pain. Forget the gross mismanagement of funds and revenue - you are not paying enough. Is this one of those Bustamante "tough love" scenarios?

Unbelievable!

Capitol Weekly reports:

The bill would create a new 2 percent oil tax for any oil company that earns more than $10 million in net income. It would also impose a new 6 percent “oil severance tax” based on the gross value of each barrel of oil produced in the state.

DeVore said the proposal would "devastate oil production in California if it’s passed," and would lead to an increase in Calfornia's gas prices, despite language in the bill that specifically prohibits oil companies from passing the cost of the new tax on to consumers.

The bill language was introduced Monday, and is being fast-tracked by the Speaker’s office. It is scheduled to be heard in Assembly Revenue and Taxation Wednesday, and on the Assembly floor some time this week, right before the Legislature adjourns for spring break.

Yeah, no doubt it is being "fast-tracked". Get it in under the radar as fast as possible. Have these people been hanging out on New York Ranch Road?

It is like I always say, "Anybody that thinks that corporations pay taxes is a moron." And I say that without reservation.

Corporations do not pay taxes - people pay taxes. I know it is a new paradigm, but try to align your brain cells for a minute. If a tax is levied on a company or an industry and it is in that company's best interest to make a profit instead of going under and filing for bankruptcy, the company reprices their product to reflect the cost of doing business. It is that simple.

If a company does not make profit, then a company dies. Nobody, except the Federal government, would be willing to invest in a company that cannot make a profit. There is no incentive and no reason.

So, if the law states that the company cannot pass on the new taxes, what do you think will happen to that new company? Hmmmm....I know. Perhaps, they will substantially reduce their production to meet profit goals, or...they will leave the state.

Some may shout "Good! We don't want those slimy oil companies here anyway." Well, you are a moron or you have a political agenda that is far left of the ACLU. If you think the cost of goods is high now, wait until oil production and all by-products (gasoline, HELLO!) have to be shipped here rather than produced here. Won't that be a dream come true.

All comments will be read with an open mind...of course.

Busted, Again...

2008-03-11T12:10:00.000-07:00

As a follow up to the article, What the Hey?, ratlab has sent an interesting piece by the Amador Ledger Dispatch - Another pot bust. It appears that the property at 11656 New York Ranch Road in Jackson may be the same one highlighted in a rather large and industrious Cannabis agricultural project. I am sure it was strictly medicinal.

Well, I guess they went from one bust to another. I'm not sure what they were smoking at the time of the purchase or at the time of the first bust, but they may want to engage in their business product line to ease the pain on this second bust. Perhaps they thought the appreciation on their home would continue to get higher. Hey, I got a million of 'em...really, I'll be here all week...no, seriously.

If anyone has any additional information on this, please let us know.

What the Hey?

2008-03-05T10:41:00.000-08:00

Another amazing colossal failure of a real estate purchase.

I continually shake my head in disgust and absolute amazement at what is being revealed by all of this - greed, greed, greed...ignorance...I don't know. I guess I'm just a bitter renter (with no debt - ha!)

Another T.S. notice filed on 02/27/08 in the Amador Ledger-Dispatch.

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S No. 1120311-04
11656 New York Ranch Road Jackson CA 95642
Deed of Trust recorded May 25, 2007
Notice of Sale is: $747,339.77

What in the world? 9 months and it is now being scheduled for auction?!!! Truly incredible. Is that a record?

WhoBoughtWhat has the last sale recorded as $940k. Apparently, the only ones that profited on this were the sellers and the real estate agents. That is a heck of a commission - at 6% that is just about $56k. Wow! Good work if you can get it.

But, wouldn't you know it, NexTag has the value currently at $893k, which, as they say is -$47k "appreciation". I'm sorry, wouldn't that be depreciation? Whatever. Of course, that was as of 12/23/07, so it might have changed a bit since then. Uh...lower, I believe.

Now, check this out. Currently, it appears that the home is for sale (imagine that) for $899k through Sondra Ammons.

However, according to this link, Sondra already sold this once before: Sold for $940k. Will she double dip? Like I said, great work if you can get it.

But, I am not sure if this is an old link or what. It could be...and we don't want to cast any disparaging judgments toward somebody if we don't have all of the facts. So, for now, I will say that this is probably an old link.

Regardless, if you want the real deal (right) you need to get a hold of Thomas Blackman. He's got it listed at $799k.

Will the real steal/deal place stand up?

Drowning in Plymouth...

2008-03-05T09:23:00.000-08:00

Here is an interesting home currently on the market. The Amador Ledger-Dispatch has a Notice of Default filed on 2/27 with the following information:

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S No. 1119221-04
Date of Sale: 03/18/2008
14661 Shenandoah Road Plymouth CA 95669
Notice of Sale is: $440,155.01

Interestingly, the now much-relied-upon Amador.WhoBoughtWhat .Com (thanks guys) shows this property last sold on 3/11/2005 to James & Deborah Ferguson for $310,500. This was confirmed by NexTag as well.

Currently, NexTag has the estimated value for this home at $355k.

Notice the difference between what is listed as the "Notice of Sale", which is approximately what is owed on the property (the UPB - unpaid principal balance) plus some estimated fees, and what the Fergusons actually paid for the home.

$355k vs. $440k - hello! Can someone say "refi with cash back"? How about the word "underwater"?

Laughably, the home is currently for sale at $489k through Kappel and Kappel. Good luck with that.
14661 SHENANDOAH Rd
Plymouth, CA, 95669 County: Amador
Bd: 3 Ba: 1 1314 sqft.
MLS#: 60119124 Status: W
Price: $489,000

There does seem to be some discrepancy on the number of bedrooms. Kappel and Kappel have it recorded as a 3/1, while NexTag and WhoBoughtWhat have it down as a 2/1.

So, would this person qualify for a Bernanke sponsored suggestion for the lender to reduce the principal amount to match what is fair market value? How and who would analyze each of the millions of these types of situations? If the lender didn't do the due diligence when they gave the loan to begin with, what makes you think that they will provide the due diligence to the FHA, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac when they try and hock this loan?

Clearly, a person that took out equity from their homes when values were soaring and now find themselves upside down and underwater should not be propped up by any government sponsored legislation or strong "suggestions" to the Mortgage Banker's Association. The government needs to stay out of this! The lenders need to take their lumps, the borrowers need to feel the pain, and the market will absorb the downside appropriately.

Why we as a society want to sponsor and advocate reckless behavior at taxpayers expense is beyond me.

OTS' New Plan For Fraud...

2008-02-22T11:25:00.000-08:00

Another “plan” to keep people in their homes, but one that will lead to tremendous losses and unaccounted fraud.

Check out CNN's article Mortgage crisis: Don't forgive debt, just postpone repayment

“Aren’t we trying to keep people in their homes? Isn’t that the best thing for the economy?” you may be asking. I think we need to get beyond what I have dubbed the Iraq Response for addressing issues and crises.

Regardless of how you feel about Iraq, there is an underlying argument that is used for proponents of staying until “the job is done”. I am not going to debate the war (please don’t e-mail about that) and there may on may not be some validity in that position of “well, we may have underestimated the outcome (etc.)…but, now that we are there, we need to finish the job.” Again, there may be some weight behind that thought, but likely from a moral point of view, not a logical one.

However, can we use that same logic for all of the decisions that we make as an individual, an organization, or a country? My initial response is “no way!”

It is absurd to think that the recommendation that would be given to any individual regarding a tremendous financial blunder is to continue in that direction. For example, if someone acquired an automobile that they could not afford and they were getting crushed with monthly payments, then the logical response would be to get out of that situation. Sell the car or if you cannot, then the company will repo it. The creditor has recourse that they can exercise which is “repossession”.

But, for a friend, would you tell them to continue to make the payments that have been reduced with a large lump sum waiting in the end, or extend their payments from 48 months to 96 months on a depreciating asset? No, that would not be a good plan.

This new plan to “postpone repayment” is continuing to feed the fraud frenzy mindset that is out in the market today and is completely short sited.

There are so many thoughts and questions on yet another attempt and bailing out homeowners that likely should not even own a home. That may be harsh, but what do you tell your friend with a wife and 2 kids that makes $40k a year and goes out and buys a Ferrari? Is this a good idea? Of course not.

This proposed plan by the OTS is once again short sited and is doomed for failure.

You don’t have to be a genius to figure out why this won’t work.

How about this as an example…

A homeowner is underwater $150k (Sacramento) and the lender decides to issue a neg-am certificate for the $150k. The homeowner does not object and they are now making payments that have been re-amortized for $300k – a significant reduction in payments.

The homeowner wants to stay in the house through retirement, but doesn’t feel good about that extra $150k that is looming. They go out and find Mr. Strawman and get him to buy the house for the current market price of $300k. He does.

This now wipes out the $150k that was looming against the future appreciation of the home. Mr. and Mrs. Homeowner go out and get a new loan for $300k and repurchase the home. Voila! They are now making payments at the current market rate (hopefully) and without the looming neg-am certificate.

The risk was transferred to the one that purchased that “certificate” (security) as an investment and hopefully the contract was written in such a way as to avoid all potential for litigation (not likely). Now, he is out his investment and Wall Street (brokerage houses, financial institutions, and pensions) will pick up the tab. Again!

Who in the world would consider buying a Neg-Am Certificate? Let’s hope that there is no new legislation being developed that will give Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac full discretion to pick these things up. They didn’t do due diligence on the Subprime junk that they bought – just ask Cuomo in New York.

The Sub-Title Says it All...

2008-02-19T15:25:00.000-08:00

Number of homes lost to lenders almost equals the total sold in January...

From the Sacramento Bee:

January saw nearly as many people lose their homes as buy them.

....................

January saw 1,815 closed escrows in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Yolo and Yuba counties, DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla reported Thursday.

But in a financial phenomenon that most analysts believe is unprecedented, 1,782 households in the same counties lost their homes to lenders. Figures for Sutter County were not available.

....................

Wow! That is quite a ratio of sold homes to foreclosures. But, I am sure we have hit the bottom...any second now...come on, where is that bottom?

The dive in prices is stressful for people who have to sell their homes, but it's a growing advantage for people who until now have been shut out of buying.

Casandra Leon was one of the fortunate ones.

Leon, 26, a Sacramento County public employee, paid $235,000 for a three-bedroom, two-bath bank repossessed home in Elk Grove on a street she thought she could never afford.

"Three years ago we would never have thought we could purchase a house like this," Leon said Thursday. She said the bank paid closing costs and did the deal without a complication. [my comment: Gee, I wonder why.]

"A lot of these foreclosures are not being purchased by investors, but by first-time buyers and people who want to live in them a long time," said Chris Saizan, a real estate agent in Elk Grove.

Well, I am glad that there are still 26 year olds that can still afford a house. Let's see...using the 2.8 rule for a traditional loan...(235,000/2.8)...that means she/they are "hopefully" making around $85,000 in order to "afford" this home.

Assuming that they qualified for a 5.89% 30 Year Fixed (no money down) there would be a monthly mortgage payment of: $1392.37. That is just for P&I - throw in taxes and insurance and you are looking at about $1800+. That doesn't even begin to touch on maintenance which is always overlooked - therefore, for this exercise, we shall do the same.

It looks like you can rent a brand new 3/2 home in Elk Grove for about $1300-$1400 (which includes maintenance and often includes yard care, etc.). So, take the $400 difference that you were apparently going to spend anyway and start socking it away (maybe even pay off those credit cards that you are still charging on). At the end of 2 years you would have about $10k in the bank and ready for a decent down payment, but I guess the idea of saving is old fashioned.

Now, don't get all cranky. I am not saying that Cassandra didn't do exactly that in the last couple of years...she probably did. She probably saved up 10%-20% down and had planned her retirement and everything. Yeah...that's it.

So, let's just say that the values continue to drop (regardless of what anybody says, there is no evidence that we have hit the bottom). What if the depreciation for Elk Grove is only 9% for 2008 instead of the 26% that we saw in 2007? And then a 5% in 2009? How much will Cassandra's home be worth then?

$235,000 * (1-.09) = $213,850: $21k loss for 2008
$213,850 * (1-.05) = $203,157: $10k loss for 2009 ($32k loss in 2 years)

At the beginning of 2010, they will still owe about $30k more than it is worth.

Then, let's say that there is an appreciation of 5% per year after that (though, I think that will be rather high). In 2013, the same house will be worth $235k - which is what they paid for it. They will have about $17k in equity, so if they plan to move at that point, I hope that the bank pays their closing costs then too.

It cost the "owners" $21,600/year ($108k total) to live in the home. Does it work out that it is still an advantage to write off the interest on this? Hmm...this is sort of a ramble. I am sure all of you are smarter than I am on this stuff. It just doesn't seem like a good deal at the moment. Am I wrong?

Well, I hope that Mr. Saizan is correct that they will want to live in it "a long time".

I know, I know...I am a bitter renter.

Bonds...More Bonds...

2008-02-14T09:58:00.001-08:00

More bonds...more bonds...

My head is spinning with how many bonds are out there, approved, and are stacking up along with more and more debt for the state and various counties for future generations. It seems fairly simple; a bond is nothing more than borrowing money today against revenue tomorrow, regardless of the amount of revenue that will be there. The money is "borrowed" at a discount, so, the county will actually get less than they owe - sort of a like a home buyer in the last few years.

Then, later down the road (but let's not think about that right now), we will have to pay this money back. Where will the money come from? The General Fund or we may in fact have to raise another bond or taxes in order to pay off the former bond. And why? Because no one likes to say that we are raising taxes...when we are raising funds in the future to pay down the bond from collected tax money, which leaves less tax money for other things...which starts the cycle all over again and may require another bond, blah, blah, and more political blah.

How come no one is asking questions like, "Where is all that revenue from the California Lottery going?" I thought that was going to be the magic bullet that would solve all of our financial issues. But, instead we see that the Lottery only accounts for about 2% of K-12 spending. Additionally, we apparently cannot leave the decision in the hands of the Local School Boards as to where to allocate the funds. In 2005-06, they spent about 64% of the funds on salaries and benefits. Then, they want to ask the educators to take a pay cut because times are hard. Sheesh!

There is a lot more to this than I can write in a single entry, but I have friends that are teachers and they give me the low-down on what they go through just get books in the door. It is ridiculous.

So, why am I discussing this on a "real estate" blog? Because this all has to do with decreasing revenues from local property tax. More depreciation leads to wider gaps in budgeting - but, no one wants to give up new spending based on increased property tax revenues. So, pass a bond because the sheep won't understand that we still have to either raise taxes or cut spending in coming years in order to pay for it.

Well, there is one more option that I believe that they are all counting on; that is that revenues will increase because the housing market will bounce back like a Jack in the Box once the two boys on the hill (Bernanke and Paulson) stop turning the little crank. Good luck with that.

Frustration is nigh. I am done.

Comparison Shopping...

2008-02-09T18:28:00.000-08:00

Perusing the foreclosures in the area, Ione definitely stands out as a city that is looking down the barrel of a depreciation cannon. There is a sign on Highway 49 that says "Smart people are buying now." I always laugh when I see that and I always wonder if they know how offensive that statement is; the conclusion being that if you are not buying now and in fact waiting for something that seems reasonable and sensible, then you are a fool and a dolt. We shall see.

Of course, I wonder of those same agents told their clients 12-24 months ago that it was not a good time to buy. Likely, they have never told anybody that it is a bad time to buy.

This house in Ione at 2108 Village Dr. is a great example of why it is such a smart time to buy. According to Amador.WhoBoughtWhat.com this property was last sold in March 2006 for $365k. It was probably brokered through those agents on Highway 49.

So, $365k in 2006...soon foreclosed upon...and now less than 2 years later it can be picked up for $248,900! Wow! $116k off the last sales price and yet the lender is still having a hard time unload this place. Apparently, those in Ione haven't seen that sign on 49.

In fact, NexTag doesn't understand the market in Ione either; they are currently listing the value as "NexTag Estimate: $372,300". Someone better let that lender know that they are pricing it way too low.

NexTag Description

2108 Village Dr, Ione, CA 95640
NexTag Estimate: $372,300 (as of 12/23/2007)
Appreciation Since Last Sale: $7,300 (+2%)
A comfortable 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home in Ione, California. This home, built in 1996, measures 1,232 sq ft on a 47,916 sq ft (1.1 acre) lot. Amenities include central heating, central cooling, and fireplace. NexTag estimates this Amador county home's value to be $372,300.

If smart people are buying now, I figure if I wait long enough to buy, I will be really smart.

Foreclosure Lane...

2008-02-08T12:27:00.001-08:00

It must really stink for all those that actually bought their homes with the idea of living in them and being able to afford them, only to see that the frenzied, post Dot Com bust, housing bubble is impacting your American dream.

Foreclosures are hard for the people that are going through them, hard for the economy, but they are just as difficult to deal with for the people that are left in neighborhoods surrounded by them. The impact of this bust for the average person that didn't seek to dive in the deep end past the safety nets of financial prudence is heavy indeed. There is one in my neighborhood that has been vacant for several months which casts a negative light on the whole block.

I noticed in the post from Monday "New Trustee Sale Announcements", that there are actually 2 streets that have 2 future REOs on them apiece.

Preston Ave.
424 PRESTON AVENUE IONE, CA
445 PRESTON AVE, IONE, CA

Church St.
219 South Church Street, IONE
311 S. CHURCH STREET, IONE

What a deal! As one man said, "Life is a deal. It is either a big deal or a little deal, but it is a deal!"

New TSAs...

2008-02-08T12:10:00.000-08:00

A few new Trustee Sale Announcements today with some sleuthful commentary. All announcements courtesy of the Ledger Dispatch.

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS # CA-07-110924-JB
940 Carbondale Rd Ione, CA 95640
Notice of Sale: $267,153.38
Date of Sale: 2/28/2008

PUBLIC NOTICE TSG No.: 2866068
15031 Maranatha Way , Sutter Creek, CA 95685
Notice of Sale: $221,661.03
Date of Sale: 2/28/2008

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TSG No.: 3504915
16050 Meadow Lark Lane, Sutter Creek, CA 95685
Date of Sale: 2/28/2008
Notice of Sale is: $567,555.33
-----------------------------------------------------------

The place on Meadow Lark Lane in Sutter Creek has an interesting background and fairly recent history. According to Amador WhoBoughtWhat, this place was most recently purchased less than a year ago for $680k. Wow, now that is a bust and a half at lightning speed!

Consider that someone approximately 10 months ago actually negotiated a deal to purchase a home in which they are currently in default. 10 months!

Apparently, they thought they were getting a deal at the time by paying $680k, since the previous owner had purchased it 2 years earlier for $715k. Ouch!

Check out the history at: 2BD in Sutter Creek sells for $680K

Walking Away...

2008-02-06T14:08:00.000-08:00

Wow, I never thought that I would see the day that "walking away" from a mortgage would be a profitable business. CNN Money does not offer much in the way of a positive picture with this running as their lead.

There are more and more reports about people that have a new perspective on their homes/mortgages. It is a new paradigm in which the old guard at BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi and a host of others were taken completely unaware.

The new mortgage culture does not see their debt as a moral obligation, but instead sees their mortgage as nothing less than a business transaction. This is confusing for the golden parachute crowd in that for the first time in American history, the consumer shares their same viewpoint. It puts a major monkey wrench about the size of a gorilla in the cogs at the mortgage servicing factory and is wreaking mass havoc at the top.

Basically, the new "walk-away" culture says to themselves, "Why should I continue to pay for an increasing monthly mortgage amount on a depreciating piece of property/real estate?" They see it as a business transaction - if a business is losing money in a certain sector of their market, they shut the doors. Corporations don't feel a moral obligation to continue to pay for things or people that do not perform, therefore, why should the mortgagee?

Interesting question - we will touch on that more later, but here is a new company that apparently is doing very well that counsels people whether they should walk away or they should stick it out. Wow. No, this is not a joke.

Here is the link for the new company: You Walk Away

Serving Others Brings a Smile...

2008-02-06T10:05:00.000-08:00

With all of the bad news in the media concerning real estate, the economy and a myriad of other issues, I thought that this article in the Amador Ledger Dispatch touched on something that many in this nation have forgotten about - serving others. I have always found it is a blessing to be able to sacrifice time and resources in order to help those that need it. Thank God we still have those that feel the same.

'Smiles For Kids'

Jackson Creek Dental Group hosted its 23rd Annual "Smiles For Kids" day at their office on the corner of French Bar Road and Highway 49. Part of the California Dental Association's "Give Kids a Smile" program, it offers free dental care to kids without dental insurance. Sandy Garcia, Jackson Creek Dental Group's coordinator/marketing manager, said the dental office served 55 children last year, up from 28 children in 2006.

More Taxes...

2008-02-06T09:42:00.000-08:00

The general idea of government is fairly consistent: when revenues increase (like when a boom in housing brings in more taxes) create new expenditures in order to burn through this new surplus. But, when revenues decrease, the opposite does not occur - the budgets rarely get cut. Instead new "fees" (taxes) are created to fill the gap because of the shortfall.

The Calaveras Enterprise is reporting one of these increases that California is planning for all current homeowners. The idea is that they cannot count on taxes coming through your property tax, because...well, your homes are depreciating and there are so many vacancies now that they are not reaping the harvest that they used to. So, instead of trying to budget appropriately like any common citizen would do, they need to increase revenue in order to cover their mismanagement.

They know that they cannot raise your property tax - many people are fighting the current valuations that the county has assessed in this depreciating market. But, they figure the best way to collect on a large scale would be to insert a fee or "surcharge" - not on the value of your home - but on your insurance policy. That way they will be sure to get it.

Leave it to California politicians to increase the tax on your house, without increasing the tax on your house.

Nice - here is the link. Calaveras Enterprise: Governor proposes new Cal Fire fee for 2008-09

What are the odds...

2008-02-04T11:57:00.000-08:00

Is this some country or what? Why are we spending billions (potentially trillions) in Iraq to bring them freedom and democracy when in the end it appears that the will of the people don't matter anyway and can be stifled through litigation and financial arm-twisting?

The Ledger-Dispatch is reporting that all of you who thought this issue was laid to rest when you cast your vote are just a bunch of flag-waving sheep. This is sick.

From the Ledger-Dispatch (Full Article):

In 2005 Amador County residents voted against a second Indian casino in the county by a resounding 85 percent.

But now the county board of supervisors is asking the populace to carefully reconsider the issue. They have scheduled six public workshops to consider whether the casino should be allowed to go forward.

New Trustee Sale Announcements...

2008-02-04T11:14:00.000-08:00

Just a quick list of soon to be REOs recently published in the Ledger Dispatch here in Jackson, California. The courthouse steps are rather busy - I predict this will continue throughout 2008.

-------------------------------------

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE Trustee Sale No.: 45078
213 K New York Ranch Road, Jackson, California 95642
WILL SELL AT PUBLIC AUCTION TO THE HIGHEST BIDDER FOR CASH
$229,319.17
Date of Sale: 02/08/2008

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TSG No.: 3464718
16622 South Madrone Court, Pioneer, CA 95666
Notice of Sale is $282,314.88
Date of Sale: 02/14/2008

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 07-50256 Title Order No. 3488020
Date of Sale: 02/13/2008
23082 RODEN LANE, PIONEER, CA, 95666
Notice of Sale is $405,909.99

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE Trustee Sale #CA0813672
Date of Sale: 02/14/2008
445 PRESTON AVE, IONE, CA 95640
Notice of Trustee's Sale is: $288,987.56

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S. No. GM-108171-C
Date of Sale: 2/15/2008
424 PRESTON AVENUE IONE, CA 95640-0000
$218,613.82

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE Trustee Sale No. 0710258JV
Date of Sale: 2-19-08
219 South Church Street, IONE, CA
$240,717.99

PUBLIC NOTICE TS# 3466.127
Date of Sale: February 15, 2008
1400 W. MARLETTE STREET, SPACE 12, IONE, CALIFORNIA 95640
(No price listed)

PUBLIC NOTICE BRS# 303307 TSG# 90-6946
Date of Sale: 2/19/2008
19095 PINE DRIVE EAST PIONEER, CA 95666
$135,492.02

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S. No: A345746
Date of Sale: FEBRUARY 7, 2008
311 S. CHURCH STREET, IONE, CA 95640
$52,468.39

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TSG No.: 3464718
Date of Sale: 02/14/2008
16622 South Madrone Court, Pioneer, CA 95666
$282,314.88

CA's Housing...Least Affordable

2007-10-10T14:35:00.000-07:00

I have one word about this headline, "DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Those that live here in the land of glittering dreams that make under $100k know that. To quote a famous gray and white beast of the order of Lagomorpha, "What a moroon!"

Here is the article (a little late, I know): California’s Housing Remains Nation’s Least Affordable

This one made me laugh; what a load of dung! This guy is towing the corporate line…"let's try not to cause panic by telling a complete falsehood and see if we can turn this thing around through marketing to sheep". Ridiculous!

He states, “…affordability has not increased despite a housing downturn that has lasted over a year is ample proof that prices aren’t likely to drop significantly…” Oh boy, where do I start? You can’t imply that because affordability has not increased that prices are not going to drop; all that it means is that the prices are still too high and the correction isn’t anywhere near finished. Hello! Don't be a simpleton.

While this guy is coolly finishing his imported scotch, he can sit back with his panicked investors and embattled financial advisor buddies and try to figure out a way to shoehorn the last person making $15 per hour into a $300k stucco enslavement camp. But guess what, the party is over and someone is going to have to pay the tab and I think he is a little too concerned with self-interest to be honest about the situation.

Again, the pain and the length of suffering will be dependent on allowing market forces to correct itself. The government should have nothing to do with this and will only extend the time that the bandages need to continue to be changed and who is infected with this plague.

Here is a chart of “affordability” in Sacramento County approaching and circling the runway now:
Notice the “affordability” getting oh so much closer each and every day. Sorry Robert, you may have to settle for domestic scotch next year if you are still employed. Even while the inventory is dropping, so is the price per square foot. Hmm...I guess supply and demand does work.

Desperation or Inspiration...

2007-09-19T10:42:00.000-07:00

Often, there is such a fine line between desperation and inspiration. However, in this case the proverbial writing on the wall must be etched with blinking neon. The lenders and those that are still in the market (holding the bag) are beyond panic mode - it is downright terror.

This is especially true for those who are holding assets on their books that cannot ditch it by reducing the price and simply tick off their shareholders when they report the loss. Yes, I am talking about individual homeowners. Those that bought in the last few years and now need to unload their rising behemoth monthly payments.

For lenders it is a little easier to reduce and unload (sometimes) - take the Forrest Oak home for example. We have been watching this particular property for many moons and guess what...it ain't appreciating, unless you can say that it is negatively appreciating. I suppose that is like saying a home is positively depreciating. Boy, that is good one.

This place is down to $209,500. For Fannie Mae, who is currently sitting on this gem, there is a surface loss of about $69,500 if it is sold at the current price. I have my doubts about selling at that price, but we will see. But there is also the lost opportunity of investment that is not calculated.

In any case, since FM has had it for the last 7 months, they are averaging a loss of about $9900 per month. Here is some advice for FM - "You need to dump this dump."

Oh, and by the way, clean the carpets; it is doubtful, but it might help.

Those were the days...

2007-09-06T23:18:00.000-07:00

Remember how important it was to hurry up and go out and blow your future possible earnings on a piece of dirt and some wood and nails called real estate? "You better hurry! If you don't buy now, you may never be able to afford a home!" Oh, how the sheep moaned.

At the time, I was amazed that so many people were making so much money and that they could afford these monstrosities. I kept thinking, "what am I doing wrong? I work hard and make decent dough - what's up with this?" It never crossed my mind that people would not only buy something that they couldn't afford, but that lenders would give them the cash to do it.

It almost hurts to post this stuff.

Well here is another one that will be heading to the auction block soon. If anybody shows up, bid low! Here is the description and the most recent price that they were looking to fetch:

10515 Ridgecrest Drive, Jackson, CA $629,000
One of the most desirable neighborhoods in Jackson - Perfect family home - Huge master suite on main level and 3 nice sized bedrooms downstairs - Great view of valley off covered porch and kitchen. Stainless steel appliances and cherry wood cabinets in kitchen. Nice home!

And here is the TS notice that goes with it. Notice the date of the "deed of trust". This means that this guy stopped making payments somewhere around January or February - just over 5 months after he bought it. Ouch!

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 07-21584 Doc ID #000732569942005N Title Order No. 3340044 Investor/Insurer No. 1103611456 APN No. 044-440-006-000 YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST, DATED 08/17/2006...will sell on 09/18/2007 at 12:00PM, At the main entrance to the Amador County Courthouse located at 500 Argonaut Lane, Jackson, California. The street address and other common designation, if any, of the real property described above is purported to be: 10515 RIDGECREST DRIVE, JACKSON, CA, 95642. The total amount of the unpaid balance with interest thereon of the obligation secured by the property to be sold plus reasonable estimated costs, expenses and advances at the time of the initial publication of the Notice of Sale is 484,287.25.

So, if this place goes for the $149 per sq. foot that the Charmstone Way house went for, I would imagine that someone could move into this pad for about $375k or so. Somehow, I am betting on a low ball bidder and a desperate lender that has one too many credit swaps and not enough cash to cover their soon to be screaming creditors.

Charming...

2007-08-29T08:44:00.000-07:00

Thanks to amador.whoboughtwhat.com for the update on the Charmstone Way home that was FC'd back in April.

According to WBW, this place was picked "acquired" by US Bank for $368,100.00 in April. The big problem for the shareholders at US Bank is that they turned around and sold it 4 months later at a $69k loss for $299k. Ouch!

If this does not give you any indication on where this market headed, you must still driving around with a Kerry/Edwards bumper sticker on your car.

The description for this place is below:

3705 Charmstone Way, Ione, CA
Usable Acreage for Shop or Animals
New light & bright open plan 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, approx 2000 sq. ft. w/high ceilings, French doors to front & rear yards, 2x6 walls, tile & laminate floors, gridded windows, pantry & island, ceiling fans & tile hearth plumbed for pellet stove. Double door entry to master w/walk-in closet, jetted tub, shower w/seats & double sinks. Oversized finished garage w/220 & 2 auto openers. Usable 1.6 acres w/mature oak & separate driveway for shop or barn in cul-de-sac.

Did you catch that? This place is 2000 sq. ft. and is on 1.6 acres! Disregarding the acreage, that works out to be around $149 per sq. ft. Hello!

The professionals at All Power Brokers were trying to hock this place prior to the repo for $415,000 - not a bad take by the new owner. The all knowing Zillow, put this place at $393,759 - makes me warm and cozy knowing that I can trust in their accurate estimate.

Still, something tells me though that we are not quite done with the overall downturn - what do you think?

Credit-card defaults on rise in US

Subprime Mortgage Woes Spreading

Forrest Oak...

2007-08-08T13:36:00.000-07:00

Maybe it is the spelling...the double "r" in "Forrest" can throw people off when they are searching on the street name. I have a feeling though, it is because this place is a dump. As I have said before, "You can't polish a turd."

Back in February we profiled this unseemly abode (link).

The owner was trying to get $305k in December; by February the new owners (Fannie Mae) tried to extricate themselves of this box for $279k. I laughed at the time - in fact, I am laughing right now.

I believe I made the comment, "Good luck with that."

I know, I know, it is all Bernanke's fault...or was that Greenspan. If Bernanke had bailed out the investment bankers yesterday by cutting the rates, we would all be sitting pretty. (Sarcasm)

Well anyway...as predicted...it remains in the hands of the last sucker to hold the devalued note.

Currently being offered at Fannie Mae for $235k - ouch.

Let the Feeding Frenzy Begin...

2007-08-01T08:20:00.001-07:00

Don't worry nothing to see here...everything is alright...nothing to see...

Gee, all we need now is for the government to get involved and to try and "fix" the issue.

Let the blood-bath begin...

Bear Stearns Halts Redemptions on Third Hedge Fund
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., manager of two hedge funds that collapsed last month, halted redemptions from a third fund after a slump in credit markets prompted investors to demand their money back.

This is a Great Read...

2007-07-25T00:27:00.000-07:00

It says it like it is. Enjoy...

Trouble in Hedgistan

We are in a Race Now

2007-07-19T23:45:00.000-07:00

The foreclosures certainly aren't letting up; nor do I expect them to anytime soon. It is as if the plug has been pulled on some giant tub - you don't recognize at first that the water is actually being let out. But, underneath the calm and placid surface the under current is pulling first at the loose silt that is at the bottom. Boy, is that corny.

Well anyway here is another NOD that just made its first appearance in the Ledger Dispatch.

This one was purchased way back in 05/2005. This is beginning to sound like a broken record. Seems as if the bulk of these places were purchased around 2 years ago. Now let me see (scratch head), I wonder why that could be. Hmm....

Oh, I know! Could it be that it was the time that sheeple were running to and fro seeking real estate and a ridiculous mortgage that they could devour? Remember when your friends said "You better buy now, or you'll be priced out of the market forever"? Seems kind of funny now. I hope you didn't listen.

Anyway, this place was picked up for about $257/sq foot. I am sure it seemed like a bargain back then, but wait a few more months and check again.

Here is the history:

2680 Quiver Drive
Property Features
Interior Area: 1280 ft2
Year Built: 1987
Sales History
Sold: 5/20/2005
Price: $329,000

Currently, Zestimate puts them in at $344,567. Somehow, I don't think that is near accurate, though, I have never known them to be wrong.

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S. No. FD-105031-C Loan No. 0324325646 YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST DATED 5/11/2005...Recorded 5/20/2005 as Instrument No. 2005-0006017-00 in Book , page of Official Records in the office of the Recorder of Amador County, California, Date of Sale:8/8/2007 at 12:00 PM Place of Sale: AT THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE AMADOR COUNTY COURTHOUSE LOCATED AT 500 ARGONAUT LANE, JACKSON, CALIFORNIA Property Address is purported to be: 2680 QUIVER DRIONE, CA 95640 APN #: 003-752-002-000 The total amount secured by said instrument as of the time of initial publication of this notice is $274,269.68

Wining About Real Estate...

2007-07-12T14:17:00.000-07:00

Apparently the Notice of Default craze has hit more than residential McMansions and subprime borrowers. We are now raising our glass to a new and less palatable real estate market that is a delicate balance between non full-bodied financial ingenuity and meager qualified pickings, that in the end produce no fruit and even less flavor in the already frothy market. Cheers and get ready to be crushed!

I am sure that the holder of this note is drunk with excitement (from The Ledger Dispatch):

PUBLIC NOTICE Trustee Sale No. FC15905-11 Loan No. 00000390916815 Title Order No. F700376 APN 007-130-007-000 TRA No. NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST DATED 7/26/2000. UNLESS YOU TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY, IT MAY BE SOLD AT A PUBLIC SALE. IF YOU NEED AN EXPLANATION OF THE NATURE OF THE PROCEEDINGS AGAINST YOU, YOU SHOULD CONTACT A LAWYER. On 7/31/2007...The street address and other common designation, if any, of the real property described above is purported to be: 21339 Dickson Way, Plymouth, CA 95669...Said sale will be made, but without covenant or warranty, expressed or implied, regarding title, possession, or encumbrances, to pay the remaining principal sum of the note(s) secured by said Deed of Trust, with interest thereon, as provided in said note(s), advances, if any, under the terms of the Deed of Trust, estimated fees, charges and expenses of the Trustee and of the trusts created by said Deed of Trust, to wit: $506,100.41

Serenidad (Spanish for "Serenity") is a boutique family winery specializing in estate-grown Zinfandels, Sauvingnon Blanc and Cabernet Sauvignon. Nestled atop a hill of rolling vineyards, blessed by the richness of it's mineral, sandy-loam, rocky soil, Serenidad vines labor yearly to produce fine vintages above the steep slopes of the Indian Creek Gorge. We welcome your visit to our tasting room at the end of Dickson Road. Bring a picnic, savor our wines and enjoy the stunning views!
21339 Dickson Way Plymouth, CA 95669

Hey, what is $1/2 a million, when you are currently selling for: $5.3 M (Here is the link)

Property Description
French Chateau Family Estate
6,200 Square Feet (8200 gross space area)
1400 Square Feet of detached buildings
6 Acres

It Speaks For Itself...

2007-06-29T00:07:00.000-07:00

Sadly, this story speaks for itself.

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 07-11121 Doc ID #0001328322422005N Title Order No. 3274724

Date of sale: 07/17/2007

272 AMAPOLA DRIVE, SUTTER CREEK, CA, 95685

The total amount of the unpaid balance with interest thereon of the obligation secured by the property to be sold plus reasonable estimated costs, expenses and advances at the time of the initial publication of the Notice of Sale is $485,091.99.

Currently offered at $539,000 - somehow, I think there may be a little wiggle room here.

By the way, here is the history:

272 Amapola Drive
Property Features

Interior Area: 3237 ft

Bedrooms: 3

Year Built: 1999
Sales HistorySold: 4/6/2006

Price: $565,000

Seller: Barbara Wagoner

Buyer: Richard Raso

Looks like we are taking a loss on this one. Ouch.

Thanks to the crew at whoboughtwhat.com

Pine Grove Pick of the Week....

2007-06-28T23:56:00.000-07:00

This one has potential. Currently, this home is being hocked at $290k - but if you can "afford" to wait just a few weeks, you may be able to pick it up much cheaper.

As the housing industry of cards begins to buckle, you will see more and more of this.

PUBLIC NOTICE Trustee Sale No.: 20070073401410 Title Order No.: N700036 FHA/VA/PMI No.: 0024853489 NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST, DATED 11/25/2003......Date of Sale: 7/17/2007 .....

22135 Meadowbrook Drive , Pine Grove, CA 95665

The total amount of the unpaid balance of the obligation secured by the property to be sold and reasonable estimated costs, expenses and advances at the time of the initial publication of the Notice of Sale is $187,059.37.

Update on Williams Repo...

2007-05-30T15:17:00.000-07:00

Well, who would've thunk it?

Here is a little update on that Williams Road pea-green, gem.

As predicted in the More Repos on the Way article, this darling of a shack was repo'ed and apparently no offers were fielded at the auction.

For all of those that want to know - yes, the inside looks as bad as the outside. What were you expecting, a marble tub with brass soap dispensers?

Anyway, for the last of the real estate lemmings that still think this is a deal and the market is about to change, you can now pick it up for less than the previous owner owed: $184,900. Which, if you do the math, is about $56k less than what they were begging for in April.

Otherwise, hang on…I’m betting on the very low $100s…perhaps the mid $90s.

Foreclosures are Country-Wide for Countrywide

2007-05-13T15:55:00.000-07:00

It's been a few weeks; sorry for the delay.

A quick update on 10520 Highway 26 in Mokelumne Hill. We first highlighted this in the leviathan article back in early March.

As predicted the prices just keep dropping and this place is no exception.

Here is the history:

Sold 01/20/2006: $425,000
Foreclosed and marketed at 03/05/2007: $348,900 (REO by Countrywide)
3/22/07 Reduced because the reality check bounced: $343,900
4/23/07 Reduced: $338,900
5/12/07 Reduced again: $314,900 (that appears to be over $30k loss back to the lender)

Well, this stuff is not rocket science. A "normal" mortgage of $300k is about $2200 per month of PITI. Those are not "normal" Moke Hill expenses; that $30k loss was probably someone's yearly amador county salary waving bye-bye. It is time to wake up and smell the over-indebted coffee.

BTW, the all knowing Zillow still has this place valued at $434,611. I think they better tell the lender so that they don't get cheated.

Arroyo Place...

2007-04-18T15:17:00.000-07:00

There must be gold in them there hills.

According to whoboughtwhat.com, this place was purchased 2/7/2005 for $402k. Built in 2003, this 1600 sq ft house went for about $250 psf. Not bad...or was it?

Previously sold on 6/2003 for much less...$320k. Why do I get the feeling that it may get down to that price again? Maybe it's just me.

Anyway, if you feel like you want to spend more than $320k, the auction will be on 5/1 at the court house.

PUBLIC NOTICE TSG No.: 3200123 TS No.: 20079070800113 FHA/VA/PMI No.: Notice Of Trustee's Sale YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST, DATED 7/28/2005 UNLESS YOU TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY, IT MAY BE SOLD AT A PUBLIC SALE. IF YOU NEED AN EXPLANATION OF THE NATURE OF THE PROCEEDING AGAINST YOU, YOU SHOULD CONTACT A LAWYER. On 5/1/2007 at 12:00 PM First American Loanstar Trustee Services, as duly appointed Trustee under and pursuant to Deed of Trust recorded 08/09/2005, as Instrument No. 2005-0010415-00, in book , page , of Official Records in the office of the County Recorder of Amador County, State of California.

The street address and other common designation, if any, of the real property described above is purported to be: 175 Arroyo Place , Jackson, CA 95642

The total amount of the unpaid balance of the obligation secured by the property to be sold and reasonable estimated costs, expenses and advances at the time of the initial publication of the Notice of Sale is $370,321.16.

No Peace in the Valley...

2007-04-18T13:57:00.000-07:00

If you feel sheltered living way up here in the foothills, here is some news on what is happening to our friends down in the valley.

...........................
California Foreclosure Notices at 10-Year High

On primary mortgages, homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender started the default process. The borrowers owed a median $10,784 on a median $331,200 mortgage.

On lines of credit, homeowners were a median six months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,580 on a median $60,000 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.

The default numbers reflect wide regional differences. The first-quarter numbers were a record in San Diego, Sacramento and Contra Costa counties. In Los Angeles County it was almost 60 percent below the first-quarter 1996 peak, reflecting the depth of the recession in the mid-1990s as well as relative strength in today's market.

So, I am sure all of you out there trying to sell your home are comforted by the "relative strength" of the today's market.

On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Sacramento, Riverside and San Joaquin counties.
...........................
Sacramento Near Top in National Foreclosure Activity

Some 3,400 Sacramento County property owners faced foreclosure in the first quarter of 2007, up nearly 200 percent from the same period last year.

In sheer volume of defaults, Sacramento County is in the top ten nationwide. Hey, nationwide status - we're not just a cow-town anymore!
...........................
FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, HOUSING SLUMP TAKES TOLL

The housing boom has ended. The slump is clearly evident in the multitude of For Sale signs on lawns around the nation. Illegal immigrants used to work in the construction field but now are finding jobs harder to find.

"From Fresno to Sacramento, big tangles of wire and PVC pipes clutter vacant lots in silent subdivisions, waiting for houses to be built — some day. Dozens of “For Sale” signs already dot the lawns across new residential communities. And right next to the ubiquitous billboards from builders are fresh signs offering homeowners help to avoid foreclosure."

Amazing, the mortgage industry profits going up and down the real estate boom from the same sheeple. Can someone say, "Baaaah"?
...........................
Foreclosures still rising

Mortgages were most likely to go into default in Sacramento, Riverside or San Joaquin counties. The likelihood was lowest in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

Most homeowners don't lose their home, but about 40 percent of homeowners who found themselves in default last year lost their homes in the first quarter, up a year ago from 9 percent, DataQuick reported.

Trustee's Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 11,033 during the first quarter, up 802 percent from 1,223 in the first quarter of 2006.

Oh, well, that's good...only 11,033. That can't affect much. So, if the median price of the homeowner that is in trouble is $331k, well that is only about $3,651,923,000. Don't worry, nothing to see here...remain calm, all is well.

If that trend continues for the next year, that is only 14.6 billion back to the lender. 14.6 Billion...hah! We scoff at you Mr. Billion with your capital B. No worries.

$2 Billion Per Month, and Rising...

2007-04-06T07:42:00.000-07:00

Well, here comes the flood. I hate to say "I told you so". So, I won't. Man that is so smug!

Anyway, from the Central Valley Business Times: California foreclosure sales near $2 Billion in March

FCs in CA reach $2 Billion, with a "B", in a single month.

There are a few keys to this article that I would like to point out. I know you were waiting for that - my articulate and in-depth analysis.

Key #1

Of the $2 billion worth of properties sold in March, 4,796 went back to the
lender after receiving no bids, representing $1.82 billion...

Did you catch that? 91% of all of the homes that were foreclosed on were not sold at auction time on the courthouse steps. Casey Serin knows all about that.

What that means is that the lender took the assets back as REOs and now not only needs to service its pool of existing paying "customers" (which in the industry, we call “performing”), but now they also need to manage and market its ever-growing list of unsold and stagnant properties. Time is money - and someone is going to pay for that. Likely by foregoing coming into their brick-and-mortar office space and sacrificing themselves on the altar of unemployment.

Key #2

Four of the state’s top five counties for foreclosure sales last month, on a per
capita basis, are in the Valley.

As in, “the valley” that we in Amador look down on from our lush, green, lofty heights. That should really prop up values in the high-country with dropping appreciation (some call depreciation) just a few miles down the hill.

Key #3

Foreclosures sold at auction now account for 15 percent of all home sales in
California and continue to rise...

This is the kicker! Do the numbers - you don't have to be a NASA engineer to figure this one out. If the 8% of FCs that actually sold at auction represent 15% of all of the sales in CA for the month, then you can see that it only takes a few months to reveal that there is a bulging glut of unsold properties out there.

Somehow, I don't imagine that it will be the buyer that gives in first. Tick-tock, tick-tock - so goes the clock. Who will cave from the pressure of time?

Amador Average Prices...

2007-04-02T17:53:00.000-07:00

I will have to give kudos to John Lockwood for putting this together at El Dorado and Amador County Real Estate

Average Sold Price

Average Sold Price Per Square Foot

More Repos on the Way...

2007-04-02T17:36:00.000-07:00

14385 Williams Road Pioneer, CA 95666MLS ID#: 105458
$240,0002 Bed, 1 Bath748 Sq. Ft.0.51 Acres

Wow! There are some dream homes out there...er...uh...and a few very desperate sellers.

Here is an example; you decide dream home or desparate seller.

This home in the lovely Pioneer area is a very classic sun-bleached forest green tone and maintains both over half-an-acre of useable property and the tools to create your own garden. (See image lower right)

At the low asking price of $240k, who could pass up this treasure? And considering that the price per square foot in the Amador County area has dropped to just about $200 psf at $320 psf, who could complain?

But wait, there's more...you better hurry, because apparently the lender wants their property back and soon. This gem is set for auction on 4/18/07 - 12:00 PM sharp!

See below:

PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 06-30052 Doc ID #000715156772005N Title Order No. 3184810 Investor/Insurer No. 1000228175 APN No. 031-120-023 YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST, DATED 02/14/2005. UNLESS YOU TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR PROPERTY, IT MAY BE SOLD AT A PUBLIC SALE. IF YOU NEED AN EXPLANATION OF THE NATURE OF THE PROCEEDING AGAINST YOU, YOU SHOULD CONTACT A LAWYER." ...will sell on 04/18/2007 at 12:00PM, At the main entrance to the County Courthouse, 108 Court Street, Jackson, CA at public auction, to the highest bidder for cash or check as described below, payable in full at time of sale, all right, title, and interest conveyed to and now held by it under said Deed of Trust, in the property situated in said County and State and as more fully described in the above referenced Deed of Trust. The street address and other common designation, if any, of the real property described above is purported to be: 14385 WILLIAMS ROAD, PIONEER, CA, 95666. The undersigned Trustee disclaims any liability for any incorrectness of the street address and other common designation, if any, shown herein. The total amount of the unpaid balance with interest thereon of the obligation secured by the property to be sold plus reasonable estimated costs, expenses and advances at the time of the initial publication of the Notice of Sale is $203,627.87. It is possible that at the time of sale the opening bid may be less than the total indebtedness due. In addition to cash, the Trustee will accept cashier's checks drawn on a state or national bank, a check drawn by a state or federal credit union, or a check drawn by a state or federal savings and loan association, savings association, or savings bank specified in Section 5102 of the Financial Code and authorized to do business in this state. Said sale will be made, in an ''AS IS'' condition, but without covenant or warranty, express or implied, regarding title, possession or encumbrances, to satisfy the indebtedness secured by said Deed of Trust, advances thereunder, with interest as provided, and the unpaid principal of the Note secured by said Deed of Trust with interest thereon as provided in said Note, plus fees, charges and expenses of the Trustee and of the trusts created by said Deed of Trust.

HEINEMANN Part III...

2007-03-23T09:28:00.000-07:00

Ah yes, our and faithful friend that we have dubbed "The Roof". Surprisingly, even with the tremendous explosion in resell homes that is being currently reported, buyers have overlooked this gem. Here is the original article.

History:

Date unknown: Purchased or refied for over $300k
4/18/2006: Asking $500k
2/9/2007: Being offered as REO for $238k
3/1/2007: Reduced price (REO) for $234k
3/23/2007: Reduced price (REO) for $230k

The lender has taken quite a hit on this property so far. There was a lender "take back", shown as the "recently sold price" for $321,233. So, if the lender sells for $230k, the lender loses approximately $91,233. Ouch! Someone did not do their due diligence here.

And of course the always germane and relevant Zillow puts the Zestimate price for this lovely estate at $482,139. Obviously, someone can get a steal if you hurry.

Prices Going as Predicted...

2007-03-22T12:21:00.000-07:00

Here is an update on 10520 Highway 26, which we highlighted in the Leviathan article and stated that "I shall prognosticate that we can get this cheaper." Well the magic crystal says, "Cheaper Still".

The history stacks up like this:

Sold 01/20/2006: $425,000

Foreclosed and marketed at 03/05/2007: $348,900

3/22/07 Reduced because the reality check bounced: $343,900

Let's see how low it goes. So far, the crystal is right on track. Can't be any worse than listening to the NAR and their predictions. Go magic crystal, go!

No Holiday at the Holiday Inn...

2007-03-21T09:40:00.000-07:00

Looks like there ain't no vacation going on at the Holiday Inn Express in Jackson. Now is the time to get some cheap rooms.

Currently listed in the Ledger-Dispatch with a Trustee Sale Notice.

PUBLIC NOTICE BRS/TS# 303252 TSG# 90-5944 Notice of Trustee's Sale YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST DATED 10/31/2003.

Current unpaid principal: $1,258,615.85

The auction at the court house is scheduled for 4/2/2007 at 12:00 PM.

More Trustee Sales...

2007-03-21T09:16:00.000-07:00

The Ledger-Dispatch has had a steady trickle of Trustee Sale Notices lately. Here are some examples.

************************************************************
PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE TS No. 06-28190
17780 W CLINTON RD, JACKSON, CA will sell on 03/30/2007 at 12:00PM, At the main entrance to the County Courthouse, 108 Court Street, Jackson, CA at public auction, to the highest bidder for cash or check. The initial publication of the Notice of Sale is $414,816.98.

Currently being marketed as:

$619,000 Single Family 3 Bed / 2 Full Bath / MLS#104927

************************************************************
PUBLIC NOTICE NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S. No. FD-97734-C
322 BROADWAY JACKSON, CA Date of Sale: 4/4/2007 at 12:00 PM Place of Sale: AT THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE COUNTY COURTHOUSE, 108 COURT STREET. The total amount secured by said instrument as of the time of initial publication of this notice is $221,975.23.

************************************************************

Future Not Looking Bright...

2007-03-08T10:59:00.000-08:00

CEOs are getting a little rash with their expletives these days. This is hilarious! Nice choice of words.

From Bloomberg

D.R. Horton erased its gain to end 1 cent lower at $24.55. Tomnitz said closings will likely drop below last year's 53,000. Closings are the final sale of a home. ``I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year,'' D.R. Horton Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said at a Citigroup Inc. conference in New York. ``Our future is not as bright as what we would like it to be.''

``It was very odd that a CEO would use a term like that,'' said Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading LLC in Chatham, New Jersey. ``Maybe they've got some issues over there.''

Take It Higher...

2007-03-08T09:09:00.000-08:00

Well, here is a bit of news that should not take anybody by surprise. All that building and prosperity has a price.

The Calaveras Enterprise is reporting that CCWD mulls higher water, sewer rates.

When the county "mulls" over raising prices for water and sewer, they are not just musing and noodling around with the idea; they are beginning the PR campaign to allow the constituents plenty of time accept reality before it is initiated. In other words, they are going to raise prices.

They are "debating" the plan that "would raise base water rates from the current $22 a month" to "$39.50 per month" "at the end of five years". Wow! If you calculate that over 12 months, then you are going from $264 per year to $474.

Sewer charges will also be raised from the current $45 per month to $67.50 over the same 5 year period. That is going from $540 per year to $810 per year.

For water that is about a 79% increase and for sewer it is a 50% increase. Wouldn't it be nice if they could just keep up with the rate of inflation instead of going through these kinds of spikes?

Ah, what's a couple hundred extra dollars in today's get rich in real estate market? Ask any realtor and they will tell you it is a seller's market and always a good time to buy. Hurry, there are few properties at this price...and other clichés...ad nauseam.

Well, I think there is a key toward the bottom of the article:

Like all other special districts, CCWD receives a portion of property tax revenue from all county land owners, even if they are not district customers.

That property tax revenue is used to offset operations - costs that otherwise would be covered by monthly rates.

As explained at Thursday’s meeting, the reliance on property taxes will be decreased by 5 percent each year over the next five years.

The revenue would go into a fund that could be used for major projects that have more of a countywide impact, such as protecting water rights.

Is this an indicator that the county understands that property values are decreasing and future development won't bring in the tax dollars that they had once projected? Hmmm...I wonder.

Return to Lender...

2007-03-06T11:17:00.000-08:00

This would be a great parody song with a quality Elvis impersonator:

Return to lender
Address well known
No offers at auction
Auctioneer alone

We were having a party
Giving cash in stacks
To unqualified loan apps
Now the house is coming back

Thank you...thank you very much

Well, anyway, iTulip.com has a great a great article on the ever-increasing number of properties going back to the lender at auction time - post foreclosure. This means that the lender either got no bids or the bid was so low that they did not accept it.

The interesting thing here is that the chart shows monthly data, not a cumulative number. Here is the link to the chart. You can see that in Sep-06, the lenders in CA were took back 1160 homes and there has been a perpetual climb to Feb-07 showing a lender take-back of 3695. For the month of Feb. that is about 131 homes per day. That does not even include the total number of foreclosures (those that actually sold at auction).

There's a whole lot of auctions going on. Ouch!

Leviathan Spotted in Calaveras...

2007-03-05T09:55:00.000-08:00

Here is a quick profile on a Calaveras casualty of the foreclosure leviathan that is being unleashed from his pit of debt-driven darkness. Sorry, that is a little dramatic - I will keep it brief and pithy.

This 3 by 2-er sold in January of 2006 for $425k; it is 1216 sq. feet. That is $350 per sq. foot. Yes, it sits on 6.8 acres, but my goodness, that's a plenty heap-a-cash to live out in Moke-Hill. Sorry, no image on this one.

10520 Highway 26 Sold 01/20/2006: $425,000

I shall prognosticate that we can get this cheaper. Let me rub the magic crystal and presto...ooh, much cheaper!

Currently on the market (FC) for $348,900. But, something tells me it may go for less.

Mortgage Employees Feel it First...

2007-03-02T09:18:00.000-08:00

What cliche can you say that has not already been said? For years, I have been screaming that this would be the result of this contrived and manufactured housing boom. I am no doom-and-gloomer, but you don't have to be the head of Berkshire Hathaway to have seen this coming.

I can't add more than what the Sacramento Land(ing) is reporting. Here is the Link.

Here is the video from News 10. News 10 Video

Update on HEINEMANN...

2007-03-01T09:36:00.000-08:00

As first reported back in February in my article Going Down in the Valley, there was a profiled foreclosure property in Valley Springs in which the lender was going to lose approximately $83,233.00 if sold at their current asking price.

As predicted, the asking price was still a bit too high and apparently the lender agrees with me.

Currently, the HEINEMANN property, which I have officially dubbed "The Roof", has been discounted another $4,000.00 - down to $234,000. Which of course means that the lender can add $4k to its burden of bad debt - the equivalent of one employee's salary for the month. Ouch!

Yeah, that unparalleled housing boom and unprecedented growth in non-doc lending practices was great for everybody.

The Streams are Blocked...

2007-02-28T09:21:00.000-08:00

Ya'll are just not paying enough in fees and taxes on those fully financed homes. Time to ante up people - pony up that cash, the streams aren't running.

As reported at the Calveras Enterprise, the County's housing revenues hit slump.

A total of $2.2 million from fees was projected during final budget hearings last September.
“Fees collected may be impacted by the current moratorium on new developments,” the report said.

“This could continue to impact this revenue stream through the end of the year.”
**************************
Taxes collected from property sales in Calaveras were at 37 percent, or $316,766, but should ideally be at 50 percent for the mid-year point.

This is a dramatic change from last year, when the county saw a 30 percent jump in home sales above what was anticipated.
**************************
Employee wages and benefits, which take up a large chunk of the budget, will be negotiated for the Calaveras County Sheriff’s Department and non-safety employees in the coming months.
In August 2006, county workers got a one-time 3.5 percent and additional 4 percent pay increase for the year, as well as health benefit increases.

This, along with department staff changes, totaled to more than $1.7 million of the general fund.

With an unstable housing economy, county supervisors will have to wait and see how next year’s finances will turn out.

“Do I think the revenue (from home sales) will be what they were? No,” Callaway said. “That’s why the budget is one of the more critical things the Board of Supervisors does in any county.”

In regards to the Building Department, she said, “If fees are low in relation to what it costs to manage the department, the county is going to have to bite the bullet and raise fees.”

Update on Surrey Junction in Pine Grove...

2007-02-22T13:51:00.000-08:00

In a previous post, we put together a profile of this home (link here).

As a recap, this house has been on the market over 17 months with apparently little success. When I first noticed it, the owners were asking $895k - not a small fee by most standards. No doubt, this is a nice pad, but I wonder if perhaps they are truly motivated to sell.

Not much to say on this. So far, they have dropped the price a whole $45k - now down to $850k. That is around 5% decrease in asking price, which I am sure creates standing room only at the sales office, but it appears with 517+ days on the sales floor that they can likely afford to wait for someone to hit the lottery. Or, maybe someone can use their tax return for the down payment.

I hope they realize what they are doing to the home sales statistics.

Here is the new link.

What $305k doesn't get you in Pioneer...

2007-02-21T07:26:00.000-08:00

Here is someone's dream home - but apparently not their dream price. This home was listed 12/06 for $305k. Let's take a look at what you get.

OK, well...let's read the description. There has to be more to it than this with an $1800/month P&I payment + taxes + insurance (roughly $2300/month).

The description says: "Needs new septic & roof, to be done at COE. Many recent upgrades to this comfortable 3&2 incl. new paint,carpet, kitchen counters, vinyl, & slate hearth. Office/hobby has DSL & multi phone lines. Oversized garage has lots of storage, and RV storage next to it."

Oh...DSL...OK, that might make sense. Hmm...

Well, I have seen worse. Let's go inside - you can't always judge a book by its cover.

Or, maybe you can. Holy cow! Is that the new Rose-Dalmatian carpet I've been hearing about? Look at those spots! Is that the carpet upgrade they mentioned above? I'd hate to see what it looked like before. Was it just a cement slab? Well, let's continue on.

By this time, I am sold! What else is needed to start your own home-office? Perhaps we might even consider a home-based realty business.

Well, the tour is over even for the previous note holder - now a foreclosure. It does not appear that anyone scooped up this gem for the aforementioned asking price. The lender is now asking a slightly reduced $279k. Good luck with that.

27226 FORREST OAK RD PIONEER, CA 95666 $273,000

Subprime Stats...

2007-02-21T07:02:00.000-08:00

Here are some stats from the Wall Street Journal as posted by Towel Talk on the subprime market that are fairly interesting.

Subprime loans have grown to 12.75% of the $10.2 trillion mortgage market in 2006, up from 8.5% in 2001 (Wow! That is 1.3 trillion just for '06)
47% of subprime loans are "creative" -- up from 2% in 2000 -- featuring "piggyback" loans which require no down payment and "no-doc" loans that let borrowers state their incomes without supporting documentation. While this creativity works fine when housing prices rise -- if a borrower defaults, the lender can profit by selling the property -- it does not work when housing prices are going down. (Hello! That is $611 billion in creative financing. At an average price of $235k - that is 2,600,000 homes.)
80% of subprime mortgages are exploding ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) with low fixed-interest payments in their first few years which later adjust to higher interest payments. When the ARM adjusts upward, some borrowers can't afford to pay. The resulting foreclosures lead the mortgage company to sell the house to get back some of the loan principal. The sudden increase in the supply of houses on the market puts further downward pressure on prices. (Math, people...do the math. That's $1,040,000,000 in exploding ARMS! That is a lot of zeros.)
Nearly 1.2 million foreclosure filings were reported in 2006, up 42% from 2005, representing one in 92 U.S. households. This trend will worsen if interest rates rise.
Borrowers have never been more leveraged. Loan-to-value ratios, the loan amount expressed as a percent of the property value, have grown to 86.5% last year from 78% in 2000. With all the new supply on the market, these loan-to-value ratios are likely to rise as the values decline. This will mean steeper loan writeoffs for mortgage lenders which will deplete their capital. (No comment necessary.)
At least 20 subprime lenders have filed for bankruptcy or have been sold. As mortgage-backed securities buyers exercise their rights to force mortgage originators to buy back the bad loans, the loan originators will likely be unable to come up with the buyback cash -- leading more of them to file for bankruptcy.

Quite a Discount....

2007-02-15T13:11:00.000-08:00

I know, I know, you may be tired of dreadful housing news. Hey, this will cheer you up! David Lereah says that now is a good time to buy; so get in line lemmings.

If you are looking for a deal, look no farther than this for a $621k discount!

This one is just around the corner and of course is "close to everything".

All the way from Pioneer, California, I present to you the foreclosure of the week...drum roll please...26871 WOODLAND. (White noise, applause, and aggravated screaming of the Discount of the Month recipient.)

In December of 2006 (suddenly, a long time ago in real estate), this listing was up for grabs for $1.2M. That's right folks - $1,200,000! I know, you are saying to yourself "that is a steal". Hey, a bargain hunter's dream. But wait, there's more. Tell them what they have won Johnny!

Well, according to the omniscient and heavily cognitive Zillow, this mountain retreat should be demanding no less than $925k. Perhaps the previous owner had a case of "irrational exuberance". But, what is this? Last sold on 11/06 for $739,267? Looks like an FC.

Now, according to the "Zestimate TM", the new "owners" should be asking for almost a $million. But, something must be wrong back at headquarters. Currently on the foreclosure list, this has been recently reduced to $579k.

26871 WOODLAND RD
PIONEER, CA 95666
$579,900
Agent: Sharon Rintala
(209) 295-3800

Going Down in the Valley

2007-02-09T09:10:00.000-08:00

Here is yet another example of home prices that reflect the true image of value in the market. Wow, that is fairly poetic.

Anyway, here is the listing for this 3x2'er in beautiful Valley Springs back in April of 2006:

If you squint, you can see that they were asking $500k - half of a million dollars! When you actually say "half-a-mil", it sounds like a lot more than $500k. Maybe the cost is wrapped up in the roof repair - that's a lot of roof.

Zillow/Yahoo, which is always reliable on pricing estimates (insert laughter here), puts this piece of property at $500,347.00. Seemingly, the listing price is right on, but the recently "sold" price of $321,233 looks suspicious. Can someone say foreclosure?

Well, low and behold, even the lender doesn't think it is worth that extraordinary amount of greenbacks. They are currently asking $238k! That is a drop in recommended Zillow asking price of less than half! And it looks like the bank is going to write-off that extra $83k. Ouch!

Somehow, I still think it is a bit lofty.

Here is the info if you are interested and the map link:

2376 HEINEMANN DR
VALLEY SPRINGS, CA 95252
$238,000
Agent: Vicci Fikes
Century 21
(209) 920-1520
Listing last updated: 02/08/2007 19:05:12

"Choked In The Sea" - Unexpectedly

2007-02-08T09:41:00.000-08:00

Sorry to report this, but it was inevitable.

HSBC, New Century warn of US subprime lending woes

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Two of the biggest lenders to Americans with poor credit histories said on Wednesday rising subprime mortgage defaults will weigh unexpectedly on results.

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, said it plans to set aside $10.6 billion companywide for bad debts, 20 percent more than the $8.8 billion it said analysts expected on average, because of struggles in its HSBC Finance Corp. lending business.

Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan is directly involved in trying to fix the problems, it said.

Meanwhile, New Century Financial Corp. projected a fourth-quarter loss, and said it expects to restate each of the previous three quarters' earnings lower because it did not set aside enough money to buy back subprime loans that went bad. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates had on average forecast a fourth-quarter profit of $1.06 per share.

Calaveras Codes

2007-02-08T09:13:00.000-08:00

Man, when things get tight, bring on the fight. The Stockton Record, is reporting that suddenly someone wants to enforce the California Uniform Building Code. I wonder how many things were overlooked over the last few years in order to facilitate the "boom".

Living up to the Calaveras codes
The slowdown in home sales couldn't come at a worse time for builders and contractors in Calaveras County.

It roughly coincided with the arrival of Stephanie Moreno as community development director. She took over May 15 and has been enforcing the California Uniform Building Code.

In December, she ordered an outside audit.

It revealed "that minimum fire- and life-safety requirements had been overruled or waived" for some approved plans.

The appropriate enforcement of regulations has compounded the difficulty for those in the building trades.

Plan checks take longer and require a higher threshold for approval. Combined with a stagnant housing market, it's no wonder building contractors showed up to protest the stricter rules at last Tuesday's Calaveras County Board of Supervisors meeting.

Still, the minimum standards - set for good reasons - are the law.

You Are on the Default Train in Grizzly Flats

2007-02-07T14:36:00.000-08:00

All aboard - you're on the Default Train! Hang on, it may be a rough ride!

I know, you may be saying to yourself, "Where in the heck is Grizzly Flats?" Here is a map in case you feel the need to tell somebody, "Yes, I really was there, honest."

Well, apparently the lender knows exactly where it is even if nobody else does - and they want their money.

From the Mountain Democrat (Public Notices Section), here is the official Trustee Sale number and notice for the following gem in the rough:

NOTICE OF TRUSTEE'S SALE T.S. No. 5386Loan No. 08-702182-00 YOU ARE IN DEFAULT UNDER A DEED OF TRUST DATED 4/17/2006.

(Notice the Deed of Trust Date - hmmm.)

So, the story goes that waaaay back in October of 2006 (do you remember back that far?) the asking price was $365k as seen here:

4xxx Creekside Dr, Grizzly Flats, CA 95636MLS ID: 40170088
$365,000.004 beds, 2 baths, 2224 sq. ft., 1 acres

Well, in chapter 2 of this epic novel, one thing led to another...a payment was missed...a vacation purchased...and they decide to sell in this "hot" market to get out of their dilemma.

Uh oh, it turns out that living way out in the sticks is not as popular as one may have formerly believed and gee, it may have been asking a bit much for someone to fork out over $2k per month to live in that metropolis.

It is now down to $270k and look at all you get - think of about that...since October, that is about $23k savings per month. I wonder what the price will be next month.

February 7, 2007
Price $270,000
Type 1 House on Lot
4xxx Creekside Dr
City Grizzly Flats, 95636
Subdiv Grizzly Park
Stories 1 Story
Sq Ft 2224
Cost / Sq Ft $121
Faces Northeast
Year 2006
Lot Size - Acres 1.130
Bed 4
Full Baths 2
Half Baths 0
Fireplace(s) Family Room,Gas Burning Log
Heat Central,Natural Gas
Garage No Garage,Other
Laundry 220 Volt Hook-Up,Gas Hook-Up,Inside Laundry Room
Landscape Low Maintenance
Remarks Wow Best Value. Brand New way under market value. Secluded in a gorgeous area of Grizzly Flat with great views. Open/Spacious floor plan with custom details. 25 minutes from Placerville, 45 mins from Folsom, 59 miles from Kirkwood Ski Resort. Manufactored home on a permanent foundation. Won't last, bring all offers!

But you better hurry, because the auction date for this "manufactored" home has been set for 2/21/2007 at 10:00 AM.

Place of Sale: At the main entrance of the County Courthouse - 495 Main Street Placerville, CA.

All aboard!

Sutter Creek Living just got a whole lot cheaper

2007-02-05T13:59:00.000-08:00

Here is another great listing I found. Back in September of 2005, this home was on the market for $520k. They have since become a little more cognizant of the market or perhaps a little more desperate to sell - you can't but help notice that the house is discernibly empty. Hmmm...

It is now down to $475k.

Anyway, the write-up on this home says that it has "all city amenities". What is that supposed to mean? Does it have running water and an indoor lavatory? I guess that is for all of you out-of-town bluebloods and retiring metropolitan nobility that could not consider living more than 5 miles from a Starbucks. Oooh, how aristocratic...

Let the bidding begin: Sutter Creek Living

Amador in the top 10

2007-02-05T13:27:00.000-08:00

Here is some good news for all those that believe that Amador is overpriced, becoming too congested, and maintaining stagnant wages - Amador County rated in the 10 "Best Places to Live in Rural America".

Perhaps the author is unaware of the push to "de-ruralize" this rustic and provincial county and bring it in line with the living equality of Sacramento. Can’t wait for the tagging to begin…

But for now, we are honored with the thought and gesture of including us in their best of the best list.

From the Stocton Record:
Magazine hails living in Amador

From PR Newswire:

Annual 'Best Places to Live in Rural America' Rankings Released

Like We Didn't Know

2007-01-28T21:28:00.000-08:00

Finally, the press is catching up with the reality of realty. This is from the Wall Street Journal and I guess if they print it, it must be true. Welcome to the awakening.

From the Wall Street Journal (my comments in blue ital):

New home sales tumble in '06
New home sales plunged 17.3 percent in 2006, the biggest drop in 16 years, although warm weather in the Northeast gave a better than expected lift to December sales. In other words, the sales would have been even worse if it wasn't for global warming - I hope the RE industry is happy with our burning of fossil fuels.

The full-year median price of $245,300 was up 1.8 percent from the full-year 2005 average, but that price does not reflect the various sales incentives such as extra features or closing costs that the majority of builders are reported offering to support weak sales. The median price is actually lower, but the industry won't allow for the true numbers to come out or they may face mass hysteria from the over spent public.

John Tomlinson, an analyst with Majestic Research who follows the stocks of major
home builders, says the weather-impacted December readings are not enough to say that the new home market has found a bottom.

"This is such a seasonally slow time of the year, I think we'll have to see how sales pickup in the March or April," said Tomlinson. "They still have to clear the high level of inventories before they'll rebound." That may be tough with the number of foreclosures hitting the market - California is adding 300 REOs per day.

Major homebuilders such as Lennar, Pulte Home, KB Home, Centex, D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers all saw sharp declines in earnings in 2006 with the slump in home building and new home prices.

Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist, Trusco Capital Management, the asset management arm of SunTrust Banks, also agrees it may be a year or two before the home building and new home sales market show some significant strength.

"We think the market is trying to find a bottom, but what we're seeing is still some very significant discounting going on," said Gayle. "I think we're going to see some
further softness in the first half of the year. By the second half we will have gone through the worst of this slowdown. But a resumption of trend growth in housing could be another year or two off."

But David Seiders, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, said the demand for new homes is showing relatively decent strength, falling only to near 2003 levels, which was a record at that time. Well, let's see...it had dropped to 2005 levels and then 2004 levels and now...2003 levels...uh, why won't it drop further?

"We knew all along that 2004 and 2005 were unsustainable binges," he said. "If we can move ahead from the average we saw in '06, we'll be happy as clams." It may be better to be oysters rather than clams, but I doubt there are any pearls in the year ahead.

But he said if new home prices are going to show strength again, builders will need to keep housing starts and construction slow a while longer to burn off the inventory left over from the building boom.

"The builders do need to move that off and they know it," he said about the supply of completed homes available for sale on the market. You know what that means...more discounts, incentives and decreases in the median sales prices. Hoorah!

I Surrender

2007-01-25T08:44:00.000-08:00

From the Sacramento Bee:

"Hundreds of Sacramento-area homeowners who missed their first mortgage payments early last year fueled the region's most dramatic rise in home foreclosures
since the 1990s during the fourth quarter of 2006, a property research firm said Wednesday.

La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems said 865 capital-area homeowners surrendered their houses to the bank in October, November and December -- nearly double the region's 450 third-quarter foreclosures."

By my count that is about 10% of all the homes currently listed on MLS for Sacramento. This is just a little troubling.

"While foreclosure activity climbed sharply, statistics also showed the rate of growth in notices of default -- the first sign that homeowners are having trouble making their mortgage payments -- has slowed.

The region's 16 percent jump in default notices in the fourth quarter compared to a 25 percent jump the previous quarter -- and a 37 percent rise statewide."

This is interesting that because the 4th quarter “jump” in default notices is only 16% versus 25% in the 3rd quarter that the rate of growth “has slowed”. I don’t believe anybody talked about a “slowing” housing market when there was a 16% to a 12% appreciation. In fact, if I remember correctly all of the RE breed were shouting that there is nothing to indicate that this will ever stop and that you better sell your soul if you want a place to call your own.

"But trouble at home is still clearly on the rise. The 865 fourth-quarter foreclosures compare to 63 the same time last year in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. Analysts said Wednesday the sharp rise reflects both last year's historic lows and the sheer number of owners who overextended themselves to buy houses during the recent housing boom."

Again, I am no Greenspan...but, that looks like...carry the 2...that is over 1200%! Uh...no reason to panic or become alarmed. Stay calm all is well. This is just a blip in the vast market that we call real estate.

We shall see. Stay tuned and we will continue to watch the carnage that is to come.

Perfect for Entertaining

2007-01-24T09:53:00.000-08:00

I first noticed this house, which is “perfect for entertaining”, in September of 2005. Apparently they have not “entertained” too many offers at the price that they are proposing. In 09/05, which is almost a year and a half ago, they were asking $895k. It looks like they have done some thinking over the last 16 months and somehow came to the conclusion that the price must be a little excessive.

So, now it is way down to $875k. That should surely bring in those that were right on the edge and just could not bring themselves to spend that extra $20k. Good luck with sorting out all of the bids and enjoy the party.

Here is the link to get in line: Perfect For Entertaining

New Years Resolution - Pay Your Mortgage

2007-01-23T17:23:00.000-08:00

With all of this “bubbly” talk about real estate, it appears that Amador County has also been feeling its share of the transition from the out of your mind price increases and "irrational exuberance" party to the "I should have sold sooner" regrets.

The denial of the inevitable hard landing in real estate prices and over-appreciation makes the entire ordeal a little more painful and drag on with every seller kicking and screaming along the way. There were those that cashed in early and got that last burst of sales from the few suckers left that were willing to part with their non-earned money and overly stretched credit. But I digress…

We will kick this thing off with a note about “Notice of Trustee's Sales” that seem to be shamelessly exposing themselves in some of the local newspapers. I will investigate further and provide some links and additional information regarding this when it is well researched.

From the future leading office of many home sales, let’s see what is shaking up on the steps of the Amador county Courthouse, 108 Court St. Jackson, CA.

The auction is beginning soon: Legal Notices Filed for Notice of Trustee's Sales